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 World
Broiler Meat Trade Forecast, Outlook and Situation for 2003
World Broiler Overview
Total Broiler Meat Trade Forecast to Rebound in 2003
World Trade: Total 2003 broiler meat exports by major
exporting countries are forecast to return to record levels
of 5.6 million tons, 4 percent above the 2002 estimate. The
top four exporting countries, the US, Brazil, the EU and Thailand,
are expected to dominate export markets due mainly to availability
of supplies, price competitiveness, and for the EU, increased
subsidies. For 2003, broiler meat imports by major countries
are forecast at 4.5 million tons, up 2 percent from the 2002
estimate. China, the EU, Japan, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi
Arabia are expected to account for more than 80 percent of
imports.
Key Exporters:
United States: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast
at 2.47 million tons, a 12-percent increase from the 2002
estimate, and approaching the 2001 record level. The expected
increase in exports is largely attributed to the recent agreement
on export certification with Russia, the largest market for
US poultry. Gains in exports to key markets in Asia and the
Americas are expected as strong demand by the food service
industry continues. In addition, Mexico's scheduled elimination
of tariffs and tariff-rate quotas under NAFTA will likely
improve opportunities for US broiler meat exports.
Brazil: Broiler meat exports for
2003 are forecast at 1.3 million tons, down almost 7 percent
from the 2002 estimate. The decrease is mainly attributed
to domestic and overseas market developments. In spite of
continued gains in 2003, the rate of production growth is
expected to be slower largely because of the devaluation in
Brazil's currency and tight domestic corn supplies, which
have increased input costs. Demand in the home market continues
to strengthen as broiler meat is seen as a low cost alternative
to other meat protein sources. Developments in Saudi Arabia
and the EU, the two largest markets for Brazilian broiler
products, will likely impact Brazil's broiler meat exports.
Saudi Arabia alleges excessive water content in Brazilian
products, while the EU has imposed a higher duty on frozen
poultry products. These two markets each accounted for 20
percent of Brazil's total broiler exports in 2001.
European Union: Broiler meat exports
for 2003 are forecast at 695,000 tons, up nearly 4 percent
from the 2002 estimate. The increase is attributed to greater
access to Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs: Poland,
Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and larger export
refunds for other markets. EU broiler meat exports will gain
greater access to CEECs under the double-zero agreement, which
eliminates tariffs and prohibits the use of export refunds.
In 2001, about 14 percent of the EU's total broiler meat exports
were destined for CEECs, compared to 10 percent in 2000.
Furthermore, increased export refunds
on poultry for 2003 will improve the EU's price
competitiveness in the Middle East and Russia, key markets
for whole birds and parts, accounting for 40 percent of the
EU's broiler exports in 2001. In its 2003 preliminary budget,
the EU allocated 80 million euros (US$ 79 million), up 45
percent from 2002, for poultry export restitutions. The EU
is allowed to subsidize up to 286,000 tons of poultry exports
per year under its WTO commitment.
Thailand: Broiler meat exports
for 2003 are forecast to increase 5 percent from the estimated
2002 level to 435,000 tons, due mainly to its competitive
prices in Japan and the EU, the two largest markets for Thai
broiler meat. Thailand supplies primarily value-added parts
(semi-cooked and cooked products) to Japan, while it exports
frozen parts to the EU. In response to the EU's detection
of a veterinary drug (nitrofuran) in frozen products in March
2002, Thailand banned the use of the drug and its derivatives
in production, and continues to improve testing facilities.
Key Importers:
China: Broiler meat imports for 2003 are expected to
decrease nearly 8 percent from the 2002 estimate to 350,000
tons, as an increase in production supports gains in consumption.
This forecast excludes China's imports of chicken feet. Chicken
feet imports were removed from the supply and distribution
data series (1997 to date) to more accurately measure the
size of muscle meat demand. China's broiler meat and feet
imports are attached to the China Page.
European Union: Broiler meat imports
for 2003 are expected to increase 9 percent from the 2002
estimate to 600,000 tons, due mainly to increased imports
from Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) under
double zero agreements, as well as from Brazil and Thailand.
Imports from CEECs are expected to rise as trade becomes more
liberalized. In an effort to control poultry imports from
Brazil and Thailand, the EU Commission in June 2002 reclassified
lightly salted poultry product from a frozen salted product
to simply a frozen product. It argued that the product was
primarily a frozen product before being salted, thus allowing
the EU to impose a higher duty. Frozen poultry meat has a
30 percent duty, compared to a 15 percent duty on salted poultry
meat.
Japan: Broiler meat imports for
2003 are forecast at 700,000 tons, down nearly 7 percent from
the 2002 level due mainly to rising stocks. Stocks (mainly
frozen broilers) in June 2002 were reportedly up 31 percent
to 116,000 tons from the corresponding period last year. However,
imports of further processed products are expected to rise
due to strengthening demand in the retail and food service
sectors and competitive prices from Thailand and China.
Mexico: Broiler meat imports in
2003 are expected to increase 14 percent from the revised
2002 import level to 290,000 tons supported by expansion in
the food service industry. Mexico's NAFTA commitment should
also contribute to larger imports. Effective January 2003,
Mexico is committed to eliminating tariffs and tariff-rate
quotas on poultry, thereby providing greater opportunities
for US broiler meat exports. The US is the largest supplier
of broiler meat to Mexico.
Russia: Broiler meat imports are
expected to increase 7 percent from the revised 2002 level
to a new record at 1.3 million tons in 2003 due mainly to
strong demand. Rising production due to favorable grain harvests
and increased investment in the poultry sector supports consumption
gains in the short-term. Despite an extended trade dispute
over certification of imports from the US, Russia's broiler
meat imports from the world for 2002 are projected to reach
1.22 million tons, only 5 percent below the 2001 record level
as other countries have expanded exports to Russia.
Saudi Arabia: Broiler meat
imports in 2003 are forecast to decrease slightly to 385,000
tons as growth in production exceeds the forecast in consumption
gains. Imports are expected to remain relatively constant
due to competitive prices compared to domestically produced
products.
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