World Rice Trade

Export

Total world rice exports in 2003 have recently been projected at 25,564,000 metric tons, higher than the 24,949,000 tons estimated for 2002, according to the USDA. Thailand will maintain its top position, with 7.5 millions tons estimated to be shipped in 2002 and 2003, unchanged from 2001. India and Vietnam will continue to trade places in 2003, as the former is expected to become the world’s second biggest rice exporter with 4 million tons, followed by Vietnam with 3.5 million tons. Traditionally, Vietnam has exported more rice than India, but Vietnam is very likely to lose its position to India this year. India has huge stockpiles, which keep prices very competitive, whereas low production in Vietnam pushes prices up. In fourth place comes the US, which will export 2.95 million tons next year. US rice exports have been steadily growing since 1999, thanks to increasing crops and more competitive prices. China will be fifth, with 2.25 million tons projected for export.

Burma (1.5 million tons) is expected to outdo Pakistan (0.8 million tons) in exporting rice. As a matter of fact, the latter had exported more rice than Burma until 2001, but will likely lose its place this year on account of poor production triggered by irrigation water shortages. Pakistan’s 2002 exports are projected at 1.25 million tons, against 1.5 million tons from Burma.

Trends in world rice exports (1999-2003)

Country	1999	2000	2001	2002 (Aug 12)	2003 (Aug 12)
Thailand	6,679	6,549	7,521	7,500	7,500
India	2,752	1,449	1,936	4,500	4,000
Vietnam	4,555	3,370	3,528	2,800	3,500
United States	2,644	2,847	2,541	2,950	2,950
China	2,708	2,951	1,847	1,500	2,250
Burma	57	159	670	1,500	1,500
Pakistan	1,838	2,026	2,417	1,250	800
Uruguay	681	642	806	650	650
Australia	667	617	618	400	500
Egypt	320	500	705	500	500
EU	348	308	275	275	325
Argentina	674	332	363	350	300
Guyana	252	167	175	150	175
Others	766	929	1,051	624	614
World Total	24,941	22,846	24,453	24,949	25,564

Units Thousand metric tons

Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), August 12, 2002

Import

Indonesia is likely to remain the world’s number one rice importer in 2003, with approximately 3.25 million tons, unchanged from this year’s estimate. The country needs to import this much because its rice production is considerably limited by El Nino-induced drought. Trailing behind are Iran and Nigeria, with 1.5 million tons each next year. Iran’s projected imports next year will top those in the past few years, when figures mostly exceeded one million tons each year, while import growth in Nigeria has been steady at over one million tons each year as well.

Other prominent importers in 2003 will include Iraq (1.1 million tons), Saudi Arabia (1 million tons), the EU (0.85 million tons), Senegal (0.75 million tons) and the Philippines and Japan ( 0.65 million tons each). On the whole, rice imports in these countries will remain steady next year, either equal to 2002 figures or surpassing them. This robust import demand could be attributed to rising consumption worldwide, especially in the face of El Nino-induced drought affecting rice production in some countries, particularly Indonesia.

World rice import trends (1999-2003)

Country	1999	2000	2001	2002 (August 12)	2003 (August 12)
Indonesia	3,729	1,500	1,500	3,250	3,250
Iran	1,313	1,100	735	1,250	1,500
Nigeria	950	1,250	1,738	1,500	1,500
Iraq	779	1,274	959	1,000	1,100
Saudi Arabia	750	992	1,053	900	1,000
EU	784	852	800	800	850
Senegal	700	502	863	900	750
Japan	633	656	680	650	650
Philippines	1,000	900	1,175	1,200	650
Cote d'Ivoire	600	450	654	575	600
Malaysia	617	596	633	600	600
South Africa	514	523	572	550	550
Bangladesh	1,220	638	402	300	500
Mexico	342	415	388	500	500
Cuba	431	415	481	455	475
Korea, North	159	400	537	150	450
United States	358	308	413	420	430
Brazil	781	700	673	600	400
China	178	278	267	200	400
Eastern Europe	361	343	381	357	358
Russia	580	400	247	275	350
Singapore	421	354	444	325	325
Turkey	321	309	231	250	325
Guinea	300	275	325	275	300
Canada	248	250	262	265	270
Haiti	235	245	250	260	265
Yemen	217	210	202	200	250
Ghana	125	186	211	210	225
Syria	200	150	172	180	180
Uzbekistan	40	30	142	175	175
Korea, South	137	151	99	150	150
Taiwan	5	3	23	125	130
Colombia	38	60	163	75	100
Nicaragua	88	60	117	100	100
Sri Lanka	205	18	35	80	100
Honduras	75	80	96	75	80
UAE	75	75	75	80	80
El Salvador	28	30	76	75	75
Jamaica & Dep	71	75	75	75	75
Costa Rica	56	48	41	65	70
Peru	116	86	62	55	60
O.W. Europe	50	50	55	50	50
Other Countries	3,458	3,841	4,175	4,245	4,130
Unaccounted	1,653	1,768	1,971	1,127	1,186
WORLD TOTAL	24,941	22,846	24,453	24,949	25,564

Unit: thousand metric tons
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), August 12, 2002