Trends & predictions
• The world rice production outlook for 2001 leans toward higher production and consumption, but slower global trade movement.
• The USDA forecasts global rice output to be 598 million tons in 2001, up from 585 million tons in 2000. This increase in paddy production will produce approximately 397.71 million tons of milled rice.
• However, major rice producing countries, such as Vietnam, China, and Argentina will decrease their rice output for 2001. However, this reduction will be more than offset by the surplus of rice output in Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia.
• Despite the increased global rice output, 2001 rice trade appears to be quite sluggish because of an oversupply of rice from major rice producing countries, such as China and Vietnam, but lower demand by major importing countries, particularly Indonesia, Philippines, and Bangladesh, due to self-sufficient rice production.
•  As a result, rice prices will remain at their record low in 2001, with export supply far exceeding demand and fierce export competition among the major rice exporters, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, China, and the USA.
• The Middle East and Africa continue to offer promise for rice exports, particularly Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and South Africa.
• Despite the sluggish global trade outlook, rice consumption is projected to increase to 401 million tons in 2001, up 1 million tons from 2000, according to the USDA.